Gold and silver finished 2022 with modest gains on selected U.S.-dollar benchmarks while major stock and bond investments declined. That contrast is useful to study, but only if the measurements are clear. A metal price change, a stock index’s total return and the profit on a physical coin are different calculations.
This historical review concerns calendar year 2022. It does not present forecasts made in early 2023 as current advice or assume that the same ranking will repeat.
Begin with named benchmarks
The following figures identify the measure used. Metal price changes exclude storage, dealer spreads and retail premiums. The stock and bond figures are total returns for the specified index or fund, including their stated treatment of distributions.
| Measure | 2022 result | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| Gold, LBMA afternoon fixing | Approximately +0.44% | Calculated from year-end prices of $1,805.85 in 2021 and $1,813.75 in 2022 |
| Silver, LBMA fixing | Approximately +3.72% | Calculated from year-end prices of $23.09 in 2021 and $23.95 in 2022 |
| S&P 500 | Approximately −18.1% | Calendar-year total return |
| Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund, Admiral Shares | −13.16% | Calendar-year fund return for this share class |
Metal calculations use the LBMA price tables reproduced in Wheaton Precious Metals’ 2022 annual information form: ending price divided by prior year-end price, minus one. The other results come from S&P Global and Vanguard’s fund profile.
Gold’s small annual gain concealed a difficult path
A near-flat year-end result does not mean the price stayed steady. Gold rose and fell substantially during the year as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty, interest rates, the dollar and other influences.
A person who bought near a high and sold later could have lost money even though the year-end benchmark comparison was positive. Purchase timing and holding period therefore matter alongside the annual headline.
Retail coins add another layer. An increase in gold does not guarantee a gain after the original premium, selling spread and other expenses are included.
Silver illustrates why averages and returns differ
Silver’s year-end fixing increased on the comparison above, but its annual average price declined from $25.14 in 2021 to $21.73 in 2022 in the same source. Both statements can be true: an average of prices throughout a year answers a different question from a comparison of two endpoints.
This distinction is especially relevant when a volatile market falls and then recovers late in the period. It also explains why different reports may appear to disagree until their definitions are checked.
Silver’s investment demand and industrial uses can influence its behavior differently from gold. There is no rule requiring it to rise faster whenever gold advances.
Stocks require a total-return comparison
The original article cited the S&P 500’s price decline of roughly 19.4%. For an investment-performance comparison, total return is generally the more informative figure because it accounts for dividends under the index methodology.
The S&P 500 also does not represent every stock, country or portfolio. A technology-focused index and an individual investor’s holdings can produce different results. Calendar-year losses should not be confused with peak-to-trough declines or used alone to decide whether a market entered a bear phase.
Bond prices and yields need separate explanations
A bond fund can lose market value even while its holdings pay interest. For an existing fixed-rate bond, a higher market yield generally corresponds to a lower price, all else equal. The contractual coupon does not automatically change when the bond’s trading price changes.
Duration, credit exposure and the securities held affect sensitivity. The Vanguard figure above is for one fund share class; it is not a universal result for all bonds or a prediction of what an individual bond held to maturity will return.
The Federal Reserve’s 2022 tightening included rate increases and balance-sheet runoff. Its May 2022 plan described limits on reinvesting principal payments beginning in June. That is more precise than describing the entire process as outright bond sales.
Crypto, property and cash need their own definitions
Crypto assets experienced severe stress in 2022, including failures of intermediaries. The Chicago Fed’s review of crypto runs discusses that episode. A token’s price loss and a customer’s loss caused by a failed platform are related but distinct risks.
There is no single return for “real estate.” Local home prices, rental income, financing, maintenance and transaction costs differ from the performance of listed real-estate securities. A decline in sales volume does not directly measure an owner’s investment return.
Cash outcomes likewise depend on the actual account or instrument, its rate, fees and holding period. Certificates of deposit have varying terms; an old national average is neither the best available rate nor a guaranteed future offer.
Evaluate purchasing power over matching periods
To estimate a real return, compare the nominal return and inflation over the same period. The calculation is one plus nominal return, divided by one plus inflation, minus one. Subtracting inflation is a useful approximation for small changes, but it is not exact.
A trailing inflation reading also does not establish the inflation rate for the next year. Using it to promise a future loss of purchasing power overstates what is known.
Apply the comparison to an actual coin holding
Record acquisition cost, sale proceeds and relevant expenses. Keep product premiums separate from benchmark movements and use the same dates when comparing alternatives. An annual leaderboard can provide context, but it cannot replace that transaction-level calculation.
For current physical-product quotes, contact Atlanta Gold & Coin Buyers. Decisions should reflect your needs and current terms, not an assumption that the winners of 2022 must remain the winners.
