Gold, silver, and oil prices as of March 18, 2026
Weekly Precious Metals Roundup — March 10-18, 2026
Hunter Rhodes | March 18, 2026 | Atlanta Gold & Coin
The war in Iran has entered its third week. Gold is testing $5,000 support. The Fed announces its rate decision this afternoon. And if you're wondering whether the precious metals bull market is still intact, we'd argue the answer is an emphatic yes — even though the price action this week has tested everyone's nerves.
Here's everything that happened, what it means, and where we think things go from here.
Spot Prices at a Glance (March 18)
Gold has pulled back roughly $400 from its war-driven spike above $5,400 and continues to hover just above the critical $5,000 level. Silver has corrected even more sharply, falling from the $90s down to the high-$70s. Oil remains above $100, with Brent near $102. The key question today is whether $5,000 holds as a floor — and the answer may come this afternoon when the Fed releases its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET and Powell takes the podium at 2:30.
Top Stories This Week
Gold dropped to $4,999.88 intraday today before bouncing back above $5,013. This is the first time gold has tested the $5,000 level since the Iran war began on February 28. The pullback from $5,400 represents a roughly 7% correction — meaningful but entirely normal within the context of a bull market that has seen gold rise over 75% in the past year. The decline has been driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising Treasury yields as the bond market prices in persistent inflation, and some profit-taking after the initial war-driven spike. We've seen this pattern before — sharp geopolitical spikes followed by consolidation as the market digests the new reality. If $5,000 holds, it becomes a powerful base for the next leg higher. As we detailed in How to Know if Gold and Silver Prices Have Peaked, none of the classic top signals — speculative frenzy, media saturation, consecutive 3-5% daily gains — are present right now. If it breaks, the $4,800-$4,850 range is the next support zone.
The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today, March 18. There's a 99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The real story is what Chair Jerome Powell — in what may be his second-to-last press conference before stepping down in May — says about the inflation outlook and the path forward. Before the war, markets expected rate cuts starting in June. That's now been pushed to September at the earliest, with some traders pricing in no cuts at all in 2026 and pushing expectations out to mid-2027. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and multiple other banks have officially pushed their first-cut forecasts back. One economist at High Frequency Economics even suggested the Fed should consider a rate hike to combat oil-shock inflation heading toward 3.5% by summer. For gold, a hawkish Powell could create short-term selling pressure. But the bigger picture remains supportive: the Fed is trapped between fighting inflation and supporting a weakening labor market, and that stagflationary dynamic is historically the best environment for precious metals.
The conflict has widened significantly since our last roundup. On Monday morning, Israel confirmed it killed Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official and one of the most powerful figures in the regime, along with Basij chief Gholamreza Soleimani, in targeted strikes. Israel has also launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah. Iran's foreign minister rejected ceasefire calls, stating Iran "will continue fighting until future attacks are prevented." The war's estimated death toll in Iran has risen above 4,400 military personnel. Trump claimed Iran "wants to make a deal" but said the terms "aren't good enough yet." Bloomberg reported that reopening the Strait of Hormuz looks "unlikely without a ceasefire." The geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand into gold remains fully intact — the pullback in gold is technical, not fundamental. For the full breakdown of how the Iran conflict is reshaping the metals market, see our earlier post How the Iran Conflict Is Reshaping the Gold & Silver Market in 2026.
February's Consumer Price Index, released last Tuesday, showed headline inflation at 2.4% and core at 2.5% year-over-year. On the surface, that looks manageable. But here's the critical detail: February's data does not reflect any of the war-driven oil price increases, since the strikes began on February 28. The March CPI — which will capture gas prices surging toward $4/gallon — is expected to be significantly worse. Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that if oil stays near $100, inflation will "quickly accelerate." RBC Economics projects headline inflation could push back above 3% and stay there through 2026. Barclays estimates sustained $100 oil adds roughly 0.2 percentage points to CPI within two months. Multiple analysts are now using the word "stagflation" — and that word hasn't been this relevant since the 1970s. We broke down exactly why that's bullish for gold in $100 Oil, Rising Inflation, and What It Means for Gold.
Silver has taken a heavier hit than gold, falling from the $90+ range to the high-$70s — a pullback of more than 10% in two weeks. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened slightly back toward 62:1 (we broke down what this indicator means and how to use it in The Gold-to-Silver Ratio: What It's Telling Us Right Now) as silver's industrial demand side gets weighed down by recession fears tied to the oil shock. But the structural case we laid out in Silver's Secret Weapon: How AI, Solar, and EVs Are Creating a Supply Crisis hasn't changed. Solar installations are still growing. AI data centers are still being built. The supply deficit persists. This correction is a repricing of short-term economic risk, not a reversal of the multi-year demand trend. At under $80 with silver buffalo rounds still available at $3 over spot, this could be a window that looks very attractive in hindsight.
Despite Trump's demands that allied nations send warships to reopen the strait, there has been no meaningful progress. NATO allies in Europe rejected the call. Bloomberg reported that Iran's sporadic attacks on vessels and mine threats have cut traffic to a "trickle," effectively putting Tehran in control of the waterway. Oil production across the Gulf is being cut as storage facilities fill up. Iraq's oil production has crashed 70%. Global oil prices remain up over 40% since the war began. This isn't a temporary disruption — even after a ceasefire, damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and shipping insurance costs will keep energy prices elevated for months. The inflationary aftershocks of this war will persist well beyond the last bomb.
The bond market has undergone a dramatic repricing. Before the war, traders expected two or three rate cuts in 2026 starting in June. Now, Bloomberg reports that traders have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut to mid-2027 — more than a year away. Some economists suggest the Fed may not cut at all in 2026, and a few are even floating the possibility of a hike. This is a complete reversal of market expectations from just three weeks ago. For gold, the short-term effect is negative (higher rates support the dollar and reduce gold's relative appeal). But the medium-term effect is bullish: if the Fed can't cut rates while inflation rises and the labor market weakens, real interest rates go deeper into negative territory — and that's rocket fuel for precious metals. We explained this dynamic in Is the Gold & Silver Bull Market Dead? — the structural drivers remain fully intact.
Today's Main Event: The Fed Decision and What It Means for Gold
By the time you read this, the Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day March meeting today, with the rate decision dropping at 2:00 PM ET and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM. Here's our breakdown of what to expect — and what it means for your metals.
The rate decision itself is a non-event. There's a 99% probability the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Even the two dissenters from January's meeting — Governor Stephen Miran and Governor Christopher Waller, both of whom preferred a quarter-point cut — are unlikely to push for action given the oil-driven inflation surge since then. About 1% of traders are actually pricing in a rate hike, which tells you how dramatically the landscape has shifted.
The dot plot is what matters. This meeting includes the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which features the "dot plot" — the grid showing where each FOMC member expects rates to be at year-end. Back in December, the median dot pointed to one cut in 2026. The big question is whether that shifts. If the dots move hawkish — signaling zero cuts or even a possible hike — expect gold to get hit in the short term as the dollar strengthens. If the dots stay relatively unchanged, it signals the Fed is looking through the oil shock as temporary, which would be supportive for gold.
Powell's language on inflation vs. employment will be the real tell. The Fed has a dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment. Right now those two goals are in direct conflict. Inflation is above target and about to get worse. The labor market lost 92,000 jobs in February. Oil is above $100. If Powell leans hawkish — emphasizing inflation risks and playing down labor market weakness — gold could test below $5,000 in the near term. If he leans dovish — acknowledging the labor market deterioration and characterizing the oil shock as temporary — gold should find support and potentially bounce.
Watch for the word "stagflation." If Powell or any Fed official uses that word, or if the dot plot shows significant internal disagreement (which would mirror the 10-2 vote split from January, when Miran and Waller dissented), it signals the Fed is genuinely uncertain about the path forward. Uncertainty at the Fed has historically been bullish for gold, because it means the central bank is unlikely to take aggressive action in either direction — leaving monetary conditions loose enough to support metals.
The political backdrop matters too. This is likely Powell's second-to-last press conference before he steps down in May. Kevin Warsh has been nominated to replace him but hasn't been confirmed — Senator Thom Tillis is blocking the nomination, and the DOJ has served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas over a headquarters renovation project. Powell himself released a remarkable video statement calling the criminal threat "a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President." Trump, for his part, publicly blasted Powell on Monday, saying "what's a better time to cut interest rates than now? A third-grade student would know that." All of this drama underscores the single most important point for gold investors: the Federal Reserve's independence — which has been the bedrock of dollar credibility for decades — is under unprecedented political pressure. That erosion of institutional credibility is fundamentally bullish for hard assets like gold and silver. It's the same dynamic driving central banks worldwide to accumulate gold at record pace — which we covered in Why the World's Central Banks Can't Stop Buying Gold.
Our speculation: We expect Powell to play it cautiously — acknowledging the oil shock, noting elevated uncertainty, and emphasizing the data-dependent approach. He'll likely avoid committing to any future rate path. The dot plot will probably show a slight hawkish shift, with the median moving from one cut to possibly zero, but with wide dispersion among members reflecting genuine internal disagreement. The market will initially read this as modestly hawkish, gold may dip below $5,000 briefly, but we expect buyers to step in quickly at that level. The fundamental case — persistent inflation, weakening jobs, geopolitical chaos, central bank buying — is too strong for any sustained selloff driven by a single Fed meeting.
If we're wrong and Powell surprises dovish — acknowledging that the labor market needs support and that the oil shock is transitory — gold could spike $100+ in the afternoon session. Either way, we think gold is within a few weeks of establishing its next floor and resuming its uptrend.
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What We're Watching This Week
Key Events — March 18 and Beyond
TODAY — 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve rate decision, followed by Powell press conference at 2:30 PM. The rate hold is priced in — the dot plot and Powell's commentary on inflation are what will move markets. Any hint that rate hikes are on the table could spook gold temporarily. Any acknowledgment that the labor market is weakening could support it. This is the single most important catalyst for gold and silver prices this week.
TODAY — Dot Plot Release: The updated Summary of Economic Projections will reveal where each FOMC member expects rates to be at year-end. In December, the median dot pointed to one cut. If that shifts to zero — or if any dots suggest a hike — expect gold to retest $5,000 or briefly break below. If the dots hold, gold should find its footing.
Thursday, March 19: Bank of England and Bank of Japan rate decisions. All four major central banks meeting in the same week for the first time since December 2021. Global monetary policy coordination (or lack thereof) matters for currency markets and by extension for gold.
Ongoing: Iran war. The killing of Larijani and the Lebanon ground invasion represent significant escalations. Any ceasefire signals would likely trigger profit-taking in gold and oil. Any further escalation — particularly if Hormuz stays blocked — keeps the inflationary pressure building.
Our Take: The Pullback Is Healthy — And Possibly a Gift
We know that watching gold drop $400 from its highs doesn't feel great. But let's put this in perspective: gold is still up nearly $2,000 per ounce from a year ago. Silver is still up more than $47 from this time last year. The pullback from $5,400 to $5,000 is a 7% correction within a bull market that has delivered 75%+ returns in twelve months. That's textbook healthy consolidation.
The forces driving this bull market have not changed. They've intensified. Central banks are still buying. The war is still raging. Inflation is still above the Fed's target and about to get worse. The labor market is weakening. The Fed is trapped. For a deeper understanding of how dealer buy rates behave during volatile markets like this, see Why Gold & Silver Buy Rates Don't Always Move with the Spot Price. And as we wrote in 5 Signs the Precious Metals Bull Market Has More Room to Run, every indicator we track says this is a mid-cycle correction, not a top.
If you've been wanting to add to your position — whether it's gold, silver, or platinum — pullbacks like this are the opportunities that long-term holders look back on fondly. We said the same thing in Why Waiting for Gold & Silver Prices to Bottom is the Wrong Approach, and every time we've written that, prices have subsequently moved higher.
If you're holding metals and feeling nervous, remember why you bought them: as a hedge against exactly the kind of uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical chaos that is unfolding right now. The hedge is working. A 7% pullback doesn't change that. And if the Fed's press conference this afternoon adds clarity — in either direction — gold could have its next catalyst within hours.
If you're looking to sell, spot prices near $5,000 are still historically extraordinary. We're here to give you a fair, transparent price whenever you're ready.
Stay steady. This bull market isn't over. It might just be catching its breath.
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